I have a theory about why Waymo isn't scaling as fast as expected in SF. I think that to people who are not already AV enthusiasts like you or I, the added value between Waymo and rideshare just isn't as much right now as the added value of both lower prices and convenience that rideshare had relative to traditional taxis in the 2010s. I wrote more about this here:
With this in mind, it makes sense that Waymo would prioritize putting their cars in more cities rather than deepening their market share-- first-mover advantage among the "AV enthusiast" market is more important than deepening market share among a skeptical public for now.
The incentives may change once Waymo can compete on price, and I'm curious what your thoughts are on my breakdown of the unit economics of Waymo vs. Uber that I explored in my above piece ^
I was just in SF and I feel like they have scaled up, they are literally everywhere. But the city is perfect for them since it's 7×7, high density and lots of AV/tech enthusiasts.
LA is spread out and way more normal people in the city so I think your theory makes sense! it does make sense to get first mover advantage in all the big dense cities since their product may not quite be ready for prime time for general population in cities like Los Angeles.
Yeah I was also in SF in January and I agree that Waymos were quite common in downtown/touristy areas but less so further out. The early adopter market in SF is of course bigger and that scale/utilization will probably increase a lot once airport rides become available.
But I think claims of 20% market share already are probably comparing very limited geographies and not the whole city-- just past 10% is probably more accurate. I have a footnote in my piece that details the evidence for this more.
Yea I've talked about it a few times if you search 'lyft market share' but 10-20% sounds about right. Waymo can't serve a ton of trips/use cases so the Yipit data is limited, but it's definitely growing..
Appreciate your perspective as always Harry!
I have a theory about why Waymo isn't scaling as fast as expected in SF. I think that to people who are not already AV enthusiasts like you or I, the added value between Waymo and rideshare just isn't as much right now as the added value of both lower prices and convenience that rideshare had relative to traditional taxis in the 2010s. I wrote more about this here:
https://www.2120insights.com/p/how-autonomous-vehicles-will-change
With this in mind, it makes sense that Waymo would prioritize putting their cars in more cities rather than deepening their market share-- first-mover advantage among the "AV enthusiast" market is more important than deepening market share among a skeptical public for now.
The incentives may change once Waymo can compete on price, and I'm curious what your thoughts are on my breakdown of the unit economics of Waymo vs. Uber that I explored in my above piece ^
I was just in SF and I feel like they have scaled up, they are literally everywhere. But the city is perfect for them since it's 7×7, high density and lots of AV/tech enthusiasts.
LA is spread out and way more normal people in the city so I think your theory makes sense! it does make sense to get first mover advantage in all the big dense cities since their product may not quite be ready for prime time for general population in cities like Los Angeles.
Yeah I was also in SF in January and I agree that Waymos were quite common in downtown/touristy areas but less so further out. The early adopter market in SF is of course bigger and that scale/utilization will probably increase a lot once airport rides become available.
But I think claims of 20% market share already are probably comparing very limited geographies and not the whole city-- just past 10% is probably more accurate. I have a footnote in my piece that details the evidence for this more.
Yea I've talked about it a few times if you search 'lyft market share' but 10-20% sounds about right. Waymo can't serve a ton of trips/use cases so the Yipit data is limited, but it's definitely growing..
https://www.thedriverlessdigest.com/p/waymos-market-share-is-now-equal#:~:text=Waymo%27s%20market%20share%20is%20now%20equal%20to%20Lyft%20within%20San%20Francisco%20(SF)%2C%20sort%20of..%20(link).%20According%20to%20Yipit%20data%2C%20when%20Waymo%20launched%20in%20August%202023%2C%20Uber%20and%20Lyft%20were%20at%2066%25%20and%2034%25%20market%20share%20in%20SF.
Yep, I saw this article and cited you here in my footnote! I took a look at a few different sources-- here's the link in case it's a helpful reference: https://www.2120insights.com/p/how-autonomous-vehicles-will-change#footnote-1-152869747
Thank you for the Shout-out, Harry!