Uber and Waymo to Launch Public Driverless Rides in Austin Soon
Tesla releases crash data for ‘autopilot technology’, Waymo announces a public transit credit program, and Uber had its ‘strongest quarter ever’.
Top Stories of the Week
Uber, Waymo open interest list for driverless rides in Austin (link). Austin customers can now sign up within the Uber app to join the Waymo waitlist. Uber says joining the list boosts your chances of getting a Waymo when the service rolls out. The cars will only be able to travel within 37 square miles from Hyde Park to Downtown to Montopolis. We still don’t know when the service will launch but Uber says they will be arriving ‘soon’.
From my analysis piece on Waymo’s Master Plan:
I think it’s the best business model so far since it allows Waymo to shed pesky operations, maintenance and cleaning, and instead, focus on improving their product AND reducing the cost.
In the short term, Waymo gets a ton of value from this partnership. We know that Waymo’s vehicles are currently limited by geography, freeways, weather, etc. But now, whenever any of those limitations negatively impact the customer experience, Uber can send a human driver.
A lot of early Waymo adopters have told me they are happy to wait longer or pay more for a robot driver instead of a human. But I’m not convinced that every day users will feel the same way.
This partnership keeps everyone happy though since it gives customers optionality. This increases the perception of value without costing the platforms anything extra. Customers who are willing to wait/pay more get the option of taking a Waymo, and those who don’t, get a human driver.
The other big win for Waymo with this partnership is that they will get to expose casual Uber riders to the Waymo product when there are ideal conditions. Whenever a customer calls for a regular Uber ride and there’s a cheaper/closer Waymo (with same final ETA), Uber should prompt the rider to see if they want an ‘upgrade to a Waymo’. Maybe they will even make the first ride free (they already offer $10 off your first ride). There is a ton of opportunity to cross sell to Uber’s users with this partnership which is valuable because a lot of riders have ‘first ride apprehension’ and are blown away after their first trip.
First ever Zoox commercial “Robotaxi from the future” (link). I like the branding as it fits with the design of their car. Excited to try one out (will be taking a trip to SF in a few weeks!).
Waymo begins driverless rides for employees in Atlanta, to roll out to all users later this year (link). Waymo’s PR team should get a raise since they are great at announcing every milestone along the way. PS - shots fired by Michal.
Cool Rides
Waymo on a tight road, Austin, Texas (link).
I’m in Phoenix and just got to experience Waymo for the first time (link).
AVs and Humans behaving badly
Waymo turned into oncoming traffic on the way to work. It sat there confused for 45 seconds with its hazards on (link).
Traffic jam of about a dozen Waymos due to a traffic light that was powered off from a storm on one of the biggest intersections in San Francisco (link).
The legendary battle between Waymos and Public Transport rages on (link). Catch the previous episode here in our previous edition 😄
This Waymo must have taken some tips from an Uber driver (link).
Not a great week for Waymo to be honest. Luckily, nothing serious but I don’t think I’ve ever seen this many issues in a single week (and I really don’t look too hard, just whatever pops onto my various feeds throughout the week). And these four were the only ones recorded, let’s conservatively assume there were 3x more not recorded, that would be a total of 12 minor ‘incidents’ or about 1 every 12,000 rides (assuming 175,000 rides/week).
I gave Waymo’s PR team some kudos earlier but I think it would be smart to quickly investigate and address issues like this. These types of videos leave a lasting impression on the casual customer - I’ve had several people mention things like ‘didn’t Waymo get stuck in a loop’? Not a great first impression for a company that needs to win over a lot of people.
New video of a graffiti covered Waymo car in Los Angeles. This is why we can't have nice things (link).
The unsolvable problem with Waymo’s self-driving taxis (link). Wow, this video was well done.
Other Stuff
I'm a big fan of Tesla FSD and use it daily but would love to see more details and transparency around this type of data. Some questions I have:
% of highway vs non highway miles: this is important since injuries are more severe at high speed but I'm guessing there are many more miles driven per accident on freeways (To Tesla's credit, there are probably less deaths because their cars are so much safer).
What happens if I disengage FSD right before an accident? I'm guessing Tesla doesn't count these but we all know FSD isn't perfect and makes plenty of mistakes still...and on city streets especially.
Does ‘autopilot technology’ encompass FSD and autopilot? These are two related but different products so I would guess the stats are also different. Might autopilot be bolstering FSD stats?
There are three groups of people. Uber Investors: Hoping that Waymo and other self-driving cars will partner with them. Trying to convince people to look at the current numbers more than the story. Tesla Investors: Hoping they can rapidly expand AV. Trying to convince people to look at the story more than the current numbers. Waymo Investors: Where they're like "it's cool if this works out, but no biggie because if not Google still prints cash" (link).
Joe is spot on here but my only nitpick here is that Waymo is already partnered with Uber and while it’s true they are experimenting with different options, their stated goals have been in the direction of partnerships, and that is also where the company is trending (ie Atlanta, Austin).
Should you be worried about using Waymos during a storm? Here’s what the company says (link, no paywall). This all sounds great in theory but this video from a few days ago shows one driving right through a small sinkhole in SF :)
Cruise to slash workforce by almost 50% following GM's decision to cut funding for its robotaxi operations (link).
Despite the concerns around Waymo taking market share, Uber continues to grow its customers. Monthly Active Platform Customers reached 171 million this quarter, 10 million more than a quarter ago (link). Strangely, Uber’s stock fell after reporting earnings, despite having its ‘strongest quarter ever’🤷
Dara also said "Our growth in San Fran, Phoenix & LA accelerated in Q4... experience in Phoenix suggests Uber is able to drive significantly higher utilization vs. any 1st party network." It’s not clear from his statement if this acceleration in growth is relative to other markets or year over year. The former is what would matter but I’m guessing it's the latter based on his phrasing. So my guess it that Uber grew in those markets but not as fast as in non-Waymo markets, which makes sense. Waymo is going to continue to chip away at Uber and Lyft’s market share.
Is Waymo Friend or Foe to Uber? (link, no paywall). I like Waymo’s strategy so far. SF is a great market for Waymo since it was their first, tech forward and geographically small (only 7x7 miles). So it makes sense to operate their own fleet there and use Uber to launch new markets like Atlanta and Austin. Waymo doing Miami without Uber was interesting though, and may be intended to keep Uber on its toes :) (The author notes that Uber’s stock price dropped 9 percent upon the Miami news)
Waymo announces a public transit credit program in LA (link). Waymo is launching a two-month program in LA where riders connecting to any of eight eligible transit stations will get a $3 credit the next day for future rides (valid for 60 days). Running Feb 4–Apr 1, 2025, the program aims to make sustainable travel to LAX easier, including popular bus stops for LAX travelers. This program sounds great in a press release, but is completely unrealistic. Uber and Lyft spent many years pushing this narrative, but the pricing, experience and customer segment is completely different. No one is taking a subway during rush hour and then using Uber for the last mile.
Listen to my interview with David Zipper about Uber Transit if you’d like to learn more.
Shout-outs
Thank you
and James Gross for including our Waymo vs Uber article in Ride AI. Stay tuned as I’ll also be moderating a panel at the Ride AI conference in April!Thank you Reilly Brennan for including our Waymo vs Uber article in Future of Transportation.
Until next week.
-Harry
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